5148 Sierra Cir · Dayton, OH 45414

$25,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition Est $33k · 24% under ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mobile home in nice condition, Sunny Acres mobile home community * * * 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full baths, 2-car carport * * * Replaced metal roof * * * Replaced Heat/Air * * * Vaulted ceilings * * * Walk-in closet in primary bedroom * * * Appliances stay * * * Lot rent is $700 month * * * Access to Picnic area and pool .

Key facts

• Replaced metal roof
• Replace heat/air
• Appliances stay

Tags

• REPLACED METAL ROOF
• REPLACE HEAT/AIR
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• APPLIANCES STAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Detached two-car garage; Carport
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Irregular lot; Zoned for mobile use

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (13 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms (11 x 10; 14 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Utility room on the main level; Living room on the main level; Dining room on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (5 x 5); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 45.4% vs local median 7.4% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Northridge Local (suburban): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #640 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 51 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 139.61%
• DSCR: 7.21
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $32,760
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5148 Sierra Cir	0.00mi	2/2.0	910 (0%)	1mo	$25,000	$27	99
5036 Silverdome Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	960 (+6%)	2mo	$35,000	$36	78
5239 Scotsman	0.14mi	2/1.0	980 (+8%)	1mo	$32,500	$33	76
5171 Scotsman Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	840 (-8%)	11mo	$34,900	$42	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.66×
• Total profit: $53,627
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.94×
• Total profit: $139,594
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45414

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $832	-5% $823	+0% $814	+5% $806	+10% $797
Rent	-10% $716	-5% $765	+0% $814	+5% $864	+10% $913
Rate	-1.0pp $827	-0.5pp $821	base $814	+0.5pp $808	+1.0pp $801

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4502 Waynedale Cir Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	654	$1,199	$1.83	3d	4	1.36mi
4502 Waynedale Cir Unit 4534B Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	872	$1,100	$1.26	44d	1	1.36mi
4502 Waynedale Cir Unit 5749F Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	872	$1,199	$1.38	44d	1	1.36mi
4502 Waynedale Cir Unit 4536B Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	872	$1,120	$1.28	44d	1	1.36mi
4630 Bufort Blvd Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	700	$865	$1.24	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   price $25,000
3. 2026-04-10
   price $32,000
4. 2026-03-11
   listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $9,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,392
• After-tax cash flow: $7,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant repairs to the roof and interior walls, as well as new flooring. These updates will significantly increase its value for resale or rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The satellite image and listing remarks indicate the roof needs replacement.
• Major interior walls — The peeling paint and wear on the interior walls indicate significant damage.
• Major flooring — The linoleum flooring in the kitchen and living room is visibly worn and in need of replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Replace the roof and interior walls — Replacing the roof and walls will significantly improve the home's condition and appeal to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Replace the flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The satellite image and listing remarks indicate the roof needs replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The peeling paint and wear on the interior walls indicate significant damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The linoleum flooring in the kitchen and living room is visibly worn and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Replace the roof and interior walls — Replacing the roof and walls will significantly improve the home's condition and appeal to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Replace the flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northridge Local
• NCES district ID: 3904873
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $28,923
• Composite: 12.95/100
• National rank: #9576
• State rank: #640 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,167
• Household income: $54,485
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 801.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.46%
• Current HPI: 183.1124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.41%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-37.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $25,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $32,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $39,900 Dayton MLS