2515 Avenue C

Ingleside, TX 78362

$113,750C+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,058 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,618/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$597
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $274/mo
• Annual: $3,283/yr
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.31%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $31,850

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $114k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $114k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $786 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#323 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Ingleside ISD (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #319 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-11.8%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $114k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.4% in Ingleside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.