1952 Blackbird St

Inyokern, CA 93527

$154,900C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 327 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $44/mo
• Annual: $532/yr
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($532/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#1,398 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, commute A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, employment F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.