1952 Blackbird St · Inyokern, CA 93527

$154,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 327 Days on market

Built 1987 5.04 ac lot $84/sqft · 45% below area Est $284k · 45% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is located on over 5 acres close to the highway. The MFG on the property is showing to be built in 1987 with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1848 sq ft. Title shows it to be on a permanent foundation. Financing is doubtful.

Key facts

• Over 5 acres
• Permanent foundation
• 5.04 acre lot

Tags

• OVER 5 ACRES
• PERMANENT FOUNDATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($532/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#1,398 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, commute A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, employment F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,050
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: -45.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1932 Blackbird St	0.05mi	4/3.0	1,836 (-1%)	5mo	$275,000	$150	88
1639 N Planet St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,678 (-9%)	8mo	$297,500	$177	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $26,667
• Equity at exit: $75,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $84,598
• Equity at exit: $120,468

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93527

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $796/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,194

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $88	+0% $44	+5% $1	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $-5	+0% $44	+5% $94	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $84	base $44	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6701 Mountain View Ave Unit 1 Inyokern, CA	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,250	$0.94	3d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 327 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 326 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 325 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 324 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,900 Active 322 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 321 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $154,900 Active 319 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 318 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 317 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,900 Active 316 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,900 Active 313 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 312 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 311 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 310 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 309 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    status Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    This property is located on over 5 acres close to the highway. The MFG on the property is showing to be built in 1987 with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1848 sq ft. Title shows it to be on a permanent foundation. Financing is doubtful.

17. 2025-12-23
    price $154,900 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    This property is located on over 5 acres close to the highway. The MFG on the property is showing to be built in 1987 with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1848 sq ft. Title shows it to be on a permanent foundation. Financing is doubtful.

18. 2025-09-12
    price $175,000

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    This property is located on over 5 acres close to the highway. The MFG on the property is showing to be built in 1987 with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1848 sq ft. Title shows it to be on a permanent foundation. Financing is doubtful.

19. 2025-09-12
    price $175,000 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    This property is located on over 5 acres close to the highway. The MFG on the property is showing to be built in 1987 with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1848 sq ft. Title shows it to be on a permanent foundation. Financing is doubtful.

20. 2025-06-25
    listed $199,900 Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    This property is located on over 5 acres close to the highway. The MFG on the property is showing to be built in 1987 with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1848 sq ft. Title shows it to be on a permanent foundation. Financing is doubtful.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $796 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$382/yr (+$32/mo · 48.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$796
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$2,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$517
• After-tax cash flow: $1,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636800
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,937
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6699
• State rank: #294 of 517 in CA

Livability — Inyokern

• Score: 39/100
• State rank: #1398
• US rank: #27420

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Inyokern, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,801

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Current HPI: 501.6357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-22.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $154,900 CRMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $175,000 AVMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $199,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $796 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.