22027 New Jersey Dr

Glen Allen, MO 63764

$147,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,066/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-326/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $41,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-326/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (27.7% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $107k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#613 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Woodland R-IV (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #239 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elem. (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 347 students, 63% FRL); Woodland Middle (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 261 students, 56% FRL); Woodland High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 521 statewide, top 87%, 248 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP.
• Bollinger County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.