22027 New Jersey Dr · Glen Allen, MO 63764

$147,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1994 7.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Key facts

• 7.37 acre lot
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 7.37-acre lot
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; 220 volt electric service; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Private ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Sloped down lot; Gravel road frontage along a highway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring; Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-326/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#613 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Woodland R-IV (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #239 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elem. (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 347 students, 63% FRL); Woodland Middle (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 261 students, 56% FRL); Woodland High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 521 statewide, top 87%, 248 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bollinger County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $106,614 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $15,960
• Equity at exit: $66,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $59,163
• Equity at exit: $102,211

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63764

• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $414/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $142,695

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $15	+0% $-27	+5% $-69	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-69	+0% $-27	+5% $15	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $10	base $-27	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $147,500 Active
3. 2003-05-29
   soldstatus
4. 2003-02-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $414 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,431 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,017/yr (+$85/mo · 245.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$414
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable loss: −$2,958
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$710
• After-tax cash flow: $383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodland R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2919350
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $32,564
• Composite: 28.21/100
• National rank: #6804
• State rank: #239 of 324 in MO

Livability — Glen Allen

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #21305

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,568

Population outlook (Bollinger County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,825 people
• By 2030: 11,546 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 10,935 · -7.5%
• By 2050: 10,222 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 8,396 · -29.0%
• By 2100: 6,530 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bollinger

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+72.7 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Listed $147,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $414 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.