Austin Plan

Shelby, MI 48315

$602,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,711 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,663
• Tax + insurance: −$1,482
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $-2,589/mo
• Annual: $-31,073/yr
• Cap rate: 2.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.48%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $248,949

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $603k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $514k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (25.4% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($531k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $450k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard J Duncan Elementary (math 49% / reading 67%, grade C+, #229 of 1,397 statewide, top 17%, 701 students, 29% FRL); Eisenhower High School (math 44% / reading 66%, grade C, #107 of 713 statewide, top 15%, 1,835 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At $4,500/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 22% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.