3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,723 sqft ·
Built 1949
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 116 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,828/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$456
Tax + insurance
−$145
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$384
Net cashflow
$844/mo
Annual
$10,128/yr
Cap rate
17.95%
Cash-on-cash
41.62%
DSCR
2.85
1% rule
2.10%
Cash to close
$24,332
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $87k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $87k).
It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $79k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#331 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Mccalla Elementary School (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #416 of 627 statewide, top 67%, 697 students, 69% FRL); Mcadory Middle School (math 2% / reading 33%, grade F, #199 of 257 statewide, top 77%, 854 students, 74% FRL); Mcadory High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #237 of 305 statewide, top 78%, 1,162 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 49% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 5.9% in Bessemer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,828/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 1001% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ED5NCR3XXJKC60
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29