11451 S Hunter Ave

Fortuna Foothills, AZ 85365

$145,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,270/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $153/mo
• Annual: $1,840/yr
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (12.4% below list).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#174 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $145k implies a 346% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Fortuna Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.