11410 N Lake Dr

Lake Fenton, MI 48430

$24,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,826/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$850
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $421/mo
• Annual: $5,048/yr
• Cap rate: 26.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.41%
• DSCR: 4.22
• 1% rule: 7.33%
• Cash to close: $6,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#183 in MI, #4,770 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lake Fenton Community Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #124 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Fenton Middle School (math 38% / reading 54%, grade D+, #155 of 493 statewide, top 32%, 452 students, 35% FRL); Lake Fenton High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #187 of 713 statewide, top 29%, 695 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 2.3% in Lake Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.