65 Estates Rd

Pine Hill, NJ 08021

$274,000D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,002 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax + insurance: −$723
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-176/mo
• Annual: $-2,111/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $76,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (8.3% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $243k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#385 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pine Hill School District (suburban): math 10% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #395 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: John H. Glenn School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #878 of 1,303 statewide, top 70%, 355 students, 61% FRL); Pine Hill Middle School (math 10% / reading 44%, grade F, #344 of 431 statewide, top 80%, 381 students, 60% FRL); Overbrook Senior High School (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #304 of 399 statewide, top 77%, 792 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $274k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Pine Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.