65 Estates Rd · Pine Hill, NJ 08021

$274,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,002 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1975 0.29 ac lot Est $315k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Pine Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#385 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pine Hill School District (suburban): math 10% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #395 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: John H. Glenn School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #878 of 1,303 statewide, top 70%, 355 students, 61% FRL); Pine Hill Middle School (math 10% / reading 44%, grade F, #344 of 431 statewide, top 80%, 381 students, 60% FRL); Overbrook Senior High School (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #304 of 399 statewide, top 77%, 792 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $274k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,924 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,628
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
63 Estates Rd	0.02mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,002 (0%)	23mo	$315,000	$314	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-55,351
• Equity at exit: $40,854

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-61,599
• Equity at exit: $23,691

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08021

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$609 /mo · $7,311/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,735

Max offer price $242,924

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-98	+0% $-176	+5% $-253	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-275	+0% $-176	+5% $-77	+10% $23
Rate	-1.0pp $-38	-0.5pp $-106	base $-176	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-21
   listed $274,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,311 · $609/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,311 · $609/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$7,311
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$6,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,603
• After-tax cash flow: $-508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Hill School District
• NCES district ID: 3412990
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,919
• Composite: 21.71/100
• National rank: #8269
• State rank: #395 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Hill

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #13124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Hill, NJ
• County: Camden County · 407,624 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 49,305
• Household income: $68,044
• Rent vs Own: 53.3% rent · 46.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3050.0

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 507,964 people
• By 2030: 502,182 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 485,602 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 465,630 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 419,986 · -17.3%
• By 2100: 369,492 · -27.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 63.0% · R 35.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+36.6 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.73%
• Current HPI: 338.8351
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+635.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $274,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1991-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 1988-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1977-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,311 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.