2301 Old Berwick Rd

Espy, PA 17815

$229,000B

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,616 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,315/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $1,036/mo
• Annual: $12,435/yr
• Cap rate: 11.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.39%
• DSCR: 1.86
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#350 in PA, #3,066 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Columbia SD (suburban): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #51 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $3,315/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 801% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.