13613 Gray Landing Dr

Elgin, TX 78621

$321,900D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,956 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,688
• Tax + insurance: −$536
• HOA: −$96
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-636/mo
• Annual: $-7,629/yr
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.46%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $90,132

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $322k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-636 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.