13613 Gray Landing Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$321,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,956 sqft · SingleFamily · 164 Days on market

Built 2025 5,998 sqft lot $165/sqft · at area comps Est $332k · at est. $96/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Large island
• Premium finishes

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• PREMIUM FINISHES
• LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA INSPIRED BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $322k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-636 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,267 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.46%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,895
• List price: $321,900
• Delta: -3.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13709 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,974 (+1%)	3mo	$324,990	$165	88
13601 Hamilton Hart Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-6%)	1mo	$329,890	$179	72
25605 Flora Bella Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,162 (+10%)	2mo	$319,995	$148	71
13717 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (+13%)	2mo	$363,950	$165	66
13701 Scarlett Song Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,721 (-12%)	1mo	$299,999	$174	64
13821 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (+13%)	2mo	$329,990	$149	63
13817 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (-12%)	3mo	$326,700	$189	63
25641 Flora Bella Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-14%)	2mo	$299,999	$179	62
25632 Wheat Seed Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-14%)	0mo	$299,999	$179	59
13708 Sierra Wind Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,833 (-6%)	1mo	$254,999	$139	50
18309 Rock Sage Cv	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,766 (-10%)	2mo	$279,900	$158	46
18316 Willow Sage Ln	0.58mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,209 (+13%)	2mo	$265,000	$120	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $135,172
• Equity at exit: $289,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $430,610
• Equity at exit: $625,381

Cash invested: $90,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,688
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$402 /mo · $4,828/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,937

Max offer price $229,904

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,475
• Closing costs: $9,657
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	0.17mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	43d	1	0.19mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	0.32mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	0.47mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	17d	1	0.54mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	4d	1	0.55mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.61mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	1d	1	0.67mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	43d	1	0.71mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.72mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.72mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	0.72mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.79mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.81mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	23d	1	0.81mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	43d	1	0.81mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	2d	1	0.82mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	19d	1	0.82mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	23d	1	0.86mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	43d	1	0.86mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	23d	1	0.87mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	1d	1	0.90mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	0.90mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.92mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	3d	1	0.95mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	0.96mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	23d	1	0.98mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.98mi
17001 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,945	$0.77	20d	1	1.00mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	1.02mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	1.10mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	1d	1	1.11mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	1.18mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	23d	1	1.18mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	4d	1	1.22mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	43d	1	1.27mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	1.30mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	1.33mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	1.35mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

2. 2026-05-18
   price $321,900 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

3. 2026-03-25
   price $319,900 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

4. 2026-03-09
   price $324,000 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

5. 2026-03-03
   price $334,000 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

6. 2026-03-01
   price $337,000 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

7. 2026-02-27
   price $334,000 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

8. 2026-02-02
   price $338,955 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

9. 2026-01-02
   price $335,955 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

10. 2025-12-05
    listed $333,955 Active 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    New Dream Finders Home! Ready to call something truly special home? This exceptional residence features an inviting open kitchen with a large island and premium finishes, seamlessly flowing into the living and dining areas for effortless entertaining and everyday ease. The comfortable primary suite offers a tranquil retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet, while the upstairs bedrooms and versatile flex space adapt beautifully to your lifestyle. Set within a vibrant neighborhood filled with scenic trails, parks, and resort-style amenities, this home captures both excitement and serenity—schedule your private tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,031
• − Property taxes: −$4,828
• − Insurance: −$1,610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,364
• Taxable loss: −$13,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,237
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $321,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $319,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $324,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $334,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $337,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $334,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $338,955 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $335,955 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $333,955 Unlock MLS