618 Old Baker Mountain Rd

Spencer, TN 38585

$122,500D-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 444 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 442 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $904/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$642
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $-132/mo
• Annual: $-1,587/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $34,300

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 442 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($847 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Van Buren County (rural): math 28% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #96 of 139 in TN (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 14 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.5% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 442 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.