618 Old Baker Mountain Rd · Spencer, TN 38585

$122,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 444 sqft · Manufactured public records · 442 Days on market

Built 1976 2.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 4 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Fresh gravel on the driveway, 1989 camper sleeps 2 conveys with property, 30 amp plug that will take a 50 amp adapter. Call today to view!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Enclosed carport
• Outbuildings

Tags

• UNRESTRICTED ACRES
• DETACHED CAR GARAGE
• OUTBUILDINGS
• ENCLOSED CARPORT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $90k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.5% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Van Buren County (rural): math 28% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #96 of 139 in TN (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($847 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 442 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,422 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 442 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,893
• Equity at exit: $53,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $31,085
• Equity at exit: $81,316

Cash invested: $34,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38585

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $904 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$642
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$153 /mo · $1,838/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $103,365

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,625
• Closing costs: $3,675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $122,500 Active 442 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,500 Active 441 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,500 Active 440 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,500 Active 439 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,500 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $122,500 Active 436 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $122,500 Active 435 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,500 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,500 Active 431 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $122,500 Active 430 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $122,500 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,500 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,500 Active 425 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,500 Active 424 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,500 Active 423 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $122,500 Active 422 DOM
17. 2026-03-04
    status Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 4 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Fresh gravel on the driveway, 1989 camper sleeps 2 conveys with property, 30 amp plug that will take a 50 amp adapter. Call today to view!

18. 2026-03-03
    status Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

19. 2026-03-03
    listed $122,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

20. 2026-03-01
    historical 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

21. 2026-03-01
    historical 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

22. 2026-02-28
    historical
23. 2026-02-03
    status Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 4 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Fresh gravel on the driveway, 1989 camper sleeps 2 conveys with property, 30 amp plug that will take a 50 amp adapter. Call today to view!

24. 2026-02-02
    status Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

25. 2026-02-02
    listed $122,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

26. 2026-02-01
    historical 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

27. 2026-02-01
    historical 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

28. 2026-01-31
    historical
29. 2026-01-02
    listed $122,500 Active
30. 2025-06-23
    price $122,500 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

31. 2025-06-23
    price $122,500 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

32. 2025-03-31
    listed $130,000 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

33. 2025-03-31
    listed $130,000 Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Motivated Seller, Bring us a cash offer! Affordable living is what you get with this 3 BR 1 BA home on 2.75 unrestricted acres with detached 2 car enclosed pull in garage, two 8x12 outbuildings and an 8x20 enclosed carport. Large 8x37 covered front porch with a beautiful view. Call today to view!

34. 2024-04-14
    historical
35. 2024-01-12
    status Active
36. 2024-01-03
    historical Active Under Contract
37. 2023-12-09
    price $106,000
38. 2023-08-31
    status Active
39. 2023-08-07
    historical Active Under Contract
40. 2023-07-26
    price $108,000
41. 2023-07-20
    listed $110,000 Active
42. 2022-07-05
    soldstatus $86,000
43. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus $86,000 Closed
44. 2022-05-18
    historical Active Under Contract
45. 2022-04-28
    status Active
46. 2022-02-09
    historical Active Under Contract
47. 2022-01-17
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,862
• − Property taxes: −$1,838
• − Insurance: −$612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$868
• − Management: −$868
• − Depreciation: −$3,564
• Taxable loss: −$3,761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$903
• After-tax cash flow: $-684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Buren County
• NCES district ID: 4704320
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $35,459
• Composite: 20.29/100
• National rank: #8617
• State rank: #96 of 139 in TN

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #10391

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,550

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,883 people
• By 2030: 5,925 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 5,877 · -0.1%
• By 2050: 5,706 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 5,162 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 4,450 · -24.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.2) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.8pp toward R · 2008: -20.4pp · 2024: -67.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.2 2020: R+61.6 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+20.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Current HPI: 382.7379
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Relisted — UCMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $122,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-01 Delisted — UCMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-03 Relisted — UCMLS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $122,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-01 Delisted — UCMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $122,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $122,500 UCMLS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $122,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-31 Listed $130,000 UCMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $130,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-14 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-12 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-03 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-09 Price Changed $106,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-31 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-07 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-26 Price Changed $108,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-20 Listed $110,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) $86,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-18 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-28 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-09 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-17 Listed $105,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $184 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.