4674 S Mainsail Ave

Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$515,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,408 sqft · Built 2005 · MultiFamily · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,780/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$794
• Net cashflow: $-373/mo
• Annual: $-4,475/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $144,200

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-186/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $449k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $378k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $378k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Goose Bay Elementary (336 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,780/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.