4674 S Mainsail Ave · Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$515,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,408 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2005 0.92 ac lot $214/sqft · 15% below area Est $607k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity! This well-maintained, income-producing duplex is perfectly situated on a private lot just minutes from town, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Pride of ownership shows throughout, making this a turnkey investment or ideal owner-occupant opportunity. Back on Market, no fault to the seller Each unit offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, and an office providing comfortable living space and strong rental appeal. The functional layouts and thoughtful design make both sides equally desirable. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or live in one unit while renting out the other to help offset your mortgage, this property offers flexibility, location, and long-term value. Don't miss this smart investment opportunity!

Key facts

• Private lot
• Thoughtful design
• Turnkey investment

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• INCOME PRODUCING DUPLEX
• TURNKEY INVESTMENT
• STRONG RENTAL APPEAL
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUTS
• THOUGHTFUL DESIGN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $515k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-186/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $449k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $378k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $378k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Goose Bay Elementary (336 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,780/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $378,000 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $607,244
• List price: $515,000
• Delta: -15.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-106,623
• Equity at exit: $76,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-121,032
• Equity at exit: $44,528

Cash invested: $144,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 22.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,326/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$794
• Net cashflow: $-373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,252

Max offer price $449,118

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-81	-5% $-227	+0% $-373	+5% $-519	+10% $-664
Rent	-10% $-672	-5% $-522	+0% $-373	+5% $-224	+10% $-74
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-242	base $-373	+0.5pp $-506	+1.0pp $-642

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,780
Total (2 units)			$3,780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,750
• Closing costs: $15,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4921 S Binnacle Dr Unit B Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,900	$1.12	25d	1	0.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Investor opportunity! This well-maintained, income-producing duplex is perfectly situated on a private lot just minutes from town, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Pride of ownership shows throughout, making this a turnkey investment or ideal owner-occupant opportunity. Back on Market, no fault to the seller Each unit offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, and an office providing comfortable living space and strong rental appeal. The functional layouts and thoughtful design make both sides equally desirable. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or live in one unit while renting out the other to help offset your mortgage, this property offers flexibility, location, and long-term value. Don't miss this smart investment opportunity!

2. 2026-04-02
   status Pending 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Investor opportunity! This well-maintained, income-producing duplex is perfectly situated on a private lot just minutes from town, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Pride of ownership shows throughout, making this a turnkey investment or ideal owner-occupant opportunity. Back on Market, no fault to the seller Each unit offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, and an office providing comfortable living space and strong rental appeal. The functional layouts and thoughtful design make both sides equally desirable. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or live in one unit while renting out the other to help offset your mortgage, this property offers flexibility, location, and long-term value. Don't miss this smart investment opportunity!

3. 2026-03-26
   price $515,000 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Investor opportunity! This well-maintained, income-producing duplex is perfectly situated on a private lot just minutes from town, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Pride of ownership shows throughout, making this a turnkey investment or ideal owner-occupant opportunity. Back on Market, no fault to the seller Each unit offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, and an office providing comfortable living space and strong rental appeal. The functional layouts and thoughtful design make both sides equally desirable. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or live in one unit while renting out the other to help offset your mortgage, this property offers flexibility, location, and long-term value. Don't miss this smart investment opportunity!

4. 2026-03-03
   listed $525,000 Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Investor opportunity! This well-maintained, income-producing duplex is perfectly situated on a private lot just minutes from town, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Pride of ownership shows throughout, making this a turnkey investment or ideal owner-occupant opportunity. Back on Market, no fault to the seller Each unit offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, and an office providing comfortable living space and strong rental appeal. The functional layouts and thoughtful design make both sides equally desirable. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or live in one unit while renting out the other to help offset your mortgage, this property offers flexibility, location, and long-term value. Don't miss this smart investment opportunity!

5. 2022-10-17
   soldstatus
6. 2022-06-15
   listed $475,000 Active
7. 2003-07-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,326 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,727 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: +$401/yr (+$33/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,848
• − Property taxes: −$5,326
• − Insurance: −$2,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,629
• − Management: −$3,629
• − Depreciation: −$14,982
• Taxable loss: −$13,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+8.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $515,000 AKMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $525,000 AKMLS
• 2022-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-15 Listed $475,000 AKMLS
• 2003-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,326 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.