1407 Clark Hollow Rd

Tully, NY 13084

$195,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Built 1890 · Other · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,503/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-6/mo
• Annual: $-76/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-76/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (22.9% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $150k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#800 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fabius-Pompey Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #322 of 590 in NY (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fabius-Pompey Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 286 students, 30% FRL); Fabius-Pompey Middle School High School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #887 of 1,100 statewide, top 82%, 344 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.7% in Tully — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.