1407 Clark Hollow Rd · Tully, NY 13084

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Other public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1890 2.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country classic! This 3 bedroom, 1 full bath home is situated on 1.94 private acres in the hills between Lafayette and Fabius. The main home offers over 1300 sf of living space with a bedroom and the full bath on the 1st floor! Also on the property is a 1 bedroom cottage with kitchen, full bath and living room situated on the rear of the property near a creek. Tranquility and peacefulness abound! Don't wait.

Key facts

• New propane furnace
• Private 2.2 acres
• Small pole barn

Tags

• WATERFRONT ON BUTTERNUT CREEK
• PRIVATE 2.2 ACRES
• NEW PROPANE FURNACE
• NEW INSULATED WINDOWS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SMALL POLE BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-76/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.7% in Tully — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#800 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fabius-Pompey Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #322 of 590 in NY (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fabius-Pompey Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 286 students, 30% FRL); Fabius-Pompey Middle School High School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #887 of 1,100 statewide, top 82%, 344 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,256 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $63,556
• Equity at exit: $130,809

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $185,390
• Equity at exit: $244,662

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13084

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,074/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $193,879

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $49	+0% $-6	+5% $-62	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-66	+0% $-6	+5% $53	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $43	base $-6	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-12-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-13
   listed $195,000 Active
3. 2018-10-19
   soldstatus $134,900 Closed Sale or Rented 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Country classic! This 3 bedroom, 1 full bath home is situated on 1.94 private acres in the hills between Lafayette and Fabius. The main home offers over 1300 sf of living space with a bedroom and the full bath on the 1st floor! Also on the property is a 1 bedroom cottage with kitchen, full bath and living room situated on the rear of the property near a creek. Tranquility and peacefulness abound! Don't wait.

4. 2018-07-26
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Country classic! This 3 bedroom, 1 full bath home is situated on 1.94 private acres in the hills between Lafayette and Fabius. The main home offers over 1300 sf of living space with a bedroom and the full bath on the 1st floor! Also on the property is a 1 bedroom cottage with kitchen, full bath and living room situated on the rear of the property near a creek. Tranquility and peacefulness abound! Don't wait.

5. 2018-07-23
   listed $134,900 Active 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Country classic! This 3 bedroom, 1 full bath home is situated on 1.94 private acres in the hills between Lafayette and Fabius. The main home offers over 1300 sf of living space with a bedroom and the full bath on the 1st floor! Also on the property is a 1 bedroom cottage with kitchen, full bath and living room situated on the rear of the property near a creek. Tranquility and peacefulness abound! Don't wait.

6. 2017-12-06
   historical
7. 2017-10-04
   price $134,900
8. 2017-06-06
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,185 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,111/yr (+$93/mo · 103.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,074
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$840
• After-tax cash flow: $764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fabius-Pompey Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610860
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,564
• Composite: 46.16/100
• National rank: #2499
• State rank: #322 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tully

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #800
• US rank: #15471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,297
• Population (ZIP): 3,764

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.66%
• Current HPI: 312.478
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+39.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-28 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $195,000 ACVMLS
• 2018-10-19 Sold (MLS) $134,900 CNYIS
• 2018-07-26 Pending — CNYIS
• 2018-07-23 Listed $134,900 CNYIS
• 2017-12-06 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-10-04 Price Changed $134,900 CNYIS
• 2017-06-06 Listed $139,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,074 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.