428 Shenandoah Rd

Hampton, VA 23661

$253,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,594 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,080/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax + insurance: −$352
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-428/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $70,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $253k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-428/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#133 in VA, #4,302 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Hampton City Public School District (urban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 131 in VA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hunter B. Andrews (math 65% / reading 72%, grade B+, #357 of 1,108 statewide, top 33%, 1,131 students, 81% FRL); Thomas Eaton Middle (math 51% / reading 60%, grade B-, #186 of 342 statewide, top 55%, 577 students, 88% FRL); Hampton High (math 60% / reading 75%, grade B, #183 of 319 statewide, top 58%, 1,359 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 49% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+21.4%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 68 units permitted in Hampton city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hampton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $253k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Hampton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.