72 Cottagewood Dr #29

Safety Harbor, FL 34695

$159,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,506/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-68/mo
• Annual: $-821/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-821/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (5.3% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $147k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#8 in FL, #296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Curlew Creek Elementary School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 634 students, 43% FRL); Safety Harbor Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 974 students, 50% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 171 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $159k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Safety Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.