72 Cottagewood Dr #29 · Safety Harbor, FL 34695

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1984 5,428 sqft lot Est $166k · at est. $250/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great mobile home in the beautiful Briar Creek community - 2 bed 2 bath home overlooking a peaceful pond - no flood insurance needed. Updates to home include following - main roof 2022- carport roof 2023 - water heater 2018 - washer/dryer 2022 - AC 2016 - patio awning 2016. Briar Creek is a beautiful 55plus community offering heated and cooled community pool, shuffleboard, clubhouse, an onsite market with a location that is unbeatable. Easy access to shopping, hospital, and close drive to beaches and airport.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Onsite market
• Peaceful pond

Tags

• BRIAR CREEK COMMUNITY
• PEACEFUL POND
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• CLUBHOUSE
• ONSITE MARKET
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished
• Financial info: Total annual fees $3,000; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $250; Association amenities: Clubhouse, Fitness Center, Pool, Shuffleboard Court; Association approval required; Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Part of a senior community; Cats allowed (maximum pet weight 20 lbs); Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Fire hydrant nearby; Sewer and water included in association fees
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Northeast facing; Entry on one level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof; Other foundation; Built as a manufactured double-wide
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Shed(s); Paved road access; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-821/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Safety Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#8 in FL, #296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Curlew Creek Elementary School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 634 students, 43% FRL); Safety Harbor Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 974 students, 50% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 171 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $159k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,909 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,792
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 Thistle Briar Dr #52	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	9mo	$140,000	$133	84
38 Willow Creek Ct #5	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	1mo	$142,500	$127	79
70 Live Oak Ct #21	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+4%)	8mo	$115,000	$105	74
130 Thistle Briar Dr #48	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	7mo	$160,000	$143	74
84 Jacaranda Dr #15	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+12%)	1mo	$185,000	$157	72
43 New Fawn Ct #28	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	17mo	$179,000	$162	68
131 Pinewood Ter #8	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	13mo	$190,000	$165	65
223 Dolphin Dr N	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+9%)	2mo	$235,000	$204	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-23,138
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,544
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34695

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $503/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$250
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $146,909

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-23	+0% $-68	+5% $-113	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-128	+0% $-68	+5% $-9	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $12	-0.5pp $-28	base $-68	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Magnolia Ct #4 Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	20d	1	0.36mi
2012 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,200	$1.92	26d	1	0.51mi
1924 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,315	$1.82	10d	1	0.56mi
116 Dolphin Dr S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,495	$2.29	0d	1	0.66mi
2955 Bay View Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,150	$2.05	26d	1	0.72mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	7d	1	0.72mi
1810 Driftwood Cir S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1456	$2,700	$1.85	7d	1	0.73mi
2941 Shore Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,825	$1.73	7d	1	0.78mi
86 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	26d	1	0.79mi
1 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	13d	1	0.81mi
3640 Meriden Ave Unit 3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,575	$1.61	15d	1	0.87mi
211 Countryside Key Blvd Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,899	$1.48	26d	1	0.90mi
3664 Meriden Ave Unit A Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,795	$1.85	26d	1	0.92mi
3149 Huron Ave Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	20d	1	0.95mi
3141 Huron Ave Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,875	$1.72	26d	1	0.96mi
100 Old Village Way Oldsmar, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,475	$1.38	4d	9	1.22mi
46 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$2,000	$1.62	15d	1	1.22mi
47 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	26d	1	1.22mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	7d	1	1.24mi
3001 Landmark Blvd #101 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	26d	1	1.24mi
108 Nina Way #3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,695	$1.55	26d	1	1.32mi
3460 Countryside Blvd #60 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.5	1349	$2,500	$1.85	10d	1	1.33mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	20d	1	1.34mi
2652 N McMullen Booth Rd Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,744	$1.68	0d	15	1.40mi
107 Windward Pl Unit 107 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$2,000	$2.28	20d	1	1.40mi
414 Meadow Ln Oldsmar, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	26d	1	1.44mi
133 Sabal Ct Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	17d	1	1.47mi
133 Sabal Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	957	$1,495	$1.56	26d	2	1.47mi
114 Meadow Ln #114 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	26d	1	1.47mi
3062 Eastland Blvd #202 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	26d	1	1.47mi
122 Caryl Way Bldg 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,850	$1.69	26d	1	1.48mi
218 Caryl Way Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,740	$1.59	15d	1	1.48mi
112 Woodlands Ct Unit 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	26d	1	1.48mi
3590 Magnolia Ridge Cir Unit G Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	26d	1	1.49mi
3062 Eastland Blvd Unit D11 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	920	$1,695	$1.84	26d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 515-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $159,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $503 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$816/yr (+$68/mo · 162.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$503
• − Insurance: −$1,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$3,444
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$826
• After-tax cash flow: $5/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Safety Harbor

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Safety Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 18,098
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,098
• Household income: $95,238
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 103.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.72%
• Current HPI: 335.0437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.34%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1490.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $83,300 Public Records
• 2014-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 1983-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $503 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.