3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,513 sqft ·
Built 2018
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 364 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,750/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$991
Tax + insurance
−$415
HOA
−$21
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$368
Net cashflow
$-45/mo
Annual
$-534/yr
Cap rate
6.01%
Cash-on-cash
-1.01%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$52,917
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $189k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-534/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (4.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (7.4% below list).
It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#227 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
United ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #568 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Veterans Memorial El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 779 students, 92% FRL); Lamar Bruni Vergara Middle (math 18% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 721 students, 93% FRL); Lyndon B Johnson (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 3,252 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 72% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 485 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,448 units permitted in Webb County in 2024 (245 in 5+ unit buildings).
Webb County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Laredo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 36 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29