3159 State Hwy 30

Mayfield, NY 12078

$139,500C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 2009 · Manufactured · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,294/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax + insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $115/mo
• Annual: $1,378/yr
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.53%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $39,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (7.2% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($964 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#634 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayfield Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #400 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.