3159 State Hwy 30 · Mayfield, NY 12078

$139,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2009 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right into this beautifully updated home located in the Town of Mayfield! Featuring a bright open floor plan, this home offers new flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, and brand-new stainless steel appliances!! Great Private yard with fire pit perfect for cool summer nights with lots of s'mores! Enjoy easy living just minutes from Great Sacandaga Lake, local marinas, and access to the Mayfield Town Beach for approximately $25 per year. A perfect opportunity to enjoy updated living close to the lake and all the area's outdoor recreation!

Key facts

• New flooring
• Private yard
• Fire pit

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE YARD
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#634 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayfield Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #400 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($964 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $129,413 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.53%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $83,276
• Equity at exit: $125,673

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $239,451
• Equity at exit: $271,018

Cash invested: $39,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12078

• Home prices YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,414/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,149

Max offer price $139,500

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,875
• Closing costs: $4,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $139,500 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,500 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,500 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,500 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,500 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,500 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,500 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,500 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,500 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,500 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,500 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,500 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,500 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $139,500 Active 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Move right into this beautifully updated home located in the Town of Mayfield! Featuring a bright open floor plan, this home offers new flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, and brand-new stainless steel appliances!! Great Private yard with fire pit perfect for cool summer nights with lots of s'mores! Enjoy easy living just minutes from Great Sacandaga Lake, local marinas, and access to the Mayfield Town Beach for approximately $25 per year. A perfect opportunity to enjoy updated living close to the lake and all the area's outdoor recreation!

16. 2025-10-10
    historical
17. 2025-09-19
    listed $89,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,414 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$472/yr (+$39/mo · 33.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,814
• − Property taxes: −$1,414
• − Insurance: −$698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − Depreciation: −$4,058
• Taxable loss: −$939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$225
• After-tax cash flow: $1,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618750
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,922
• Composite: 42.08/100
• National rank: #3322
• State rank: #400 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mayfield

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #634
• US rank: #11697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,087

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.22%
• Current HPI: 315.1368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+55.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $139,500 Global MLS
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $89,500 Global MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,414 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.