141 Cedar Ct #141

Carnelian Bay, CA 96140

$85,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · Built 1974 · Other · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$1,434
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $72/mo
• Annual: $865/yr
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 3.12%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($865/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#340 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.