141 Cedar Ct #141 · Carnelian Bay, CA 96140

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · Other · 127 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition 909 sqft lot $1434/mo HOA · 54% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a 1/10th ownership interest in a luxury townhome in Carnelian Woods with panoramic lake views. Two bedrooms and a sleeping loft, it has a king bed in master, queen in second bedroom and the loft has a full, a twin and two bunk beds. living area has wood burning fireplace, dining area, kitchen with eating bar and everything was totally remodeled three years ago. Best part is the panoramic views from living room and master bedroom. Each also has a deck. Amenities in the complex: clubhouse, pool, saunas, hot tubs, billiards, game room, bocce ball, volleyball, tennis courts, boat parking and par course. We are right across the street from Sierra Boat company with beach access, boating, golf, casinos, restaurants and parks all within minutes. This is a partnership that has been running since 1980 . Your 1/10th share gets you five weeks per year---one week every ten weeks on a rotating basis every year. You pay one fee of about $7,000 per year and everything is taken care of for you including weekly maid service. You show up, enjoy and then go home.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Totally remodeled
• Saunas

Tags

• PANORAMIC LAKE VIEWS
• TOTALLY REMODELED
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• SAUNAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($865/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#340 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-8,261
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,461
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96140

• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$1,434
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,559

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4295 N Lake Blvd Carnelian Bay, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,650	$2.41	43d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,434 · $17,208/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-02-12
    listed $85,000 Active 1069-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1069 chars)

    This is a 1/10th ownership interest in a luxury townhome in Carnelian Woods with panoramic lake views. Two bedrooms and a sleeping loft, it has a king bed in master, queen in second bedroom and the loft has a full, a twin and two bunk beds. living area has wood burning fireplace, dining area, kitchen with eating bar and everything was totally remodeled three years ago. Best part is the panoramic views from living room and master bedroom. Each also has a deck. Amenities in the complex: clubhouse, pool, saunas, hot tubs, billiards, game room, bocce ball, volleyball, tennis courts, boat parking and par course. We are right across the street from Sierra Boat company with beach access, boating, golf, casinos, restaurants and parks all within minutes. This is a partnership that has been running since 1980 . Your 1/10th share gets you five weeks per year---one week every ten weeks on a rotating basis every year. You pay one fee of about $7,000 per year and everything is taken care of for you including weekly maid service. You show up, enjoy and then go home.

17. 2026-02-12
    listed $85,000 Active 1069-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1069 chars)

    This is a 1/10th ownership interest in a luxury townhome in Carnelian Woods with panoramic lake views. Two bedrooms and a sleeping loft, it has a king bed in master, queen in second bedroom and the loft has a full, a twin and two bunk beds. living area has wood burning fireplace, dining area, kitchen with eating bar and everything was totally remodeled three years ago. Best part is the panoramic views from living room and master bedroom. Each also has a deck. Amenities in the complex: clubhouse, pool, saunas, hot tubs, billiards, game room, bocce ball, volleyball, tennis courts, boat parking and par course. We are right across the street from Sierra Boat company with beach access, boating, golf, casinos, restaurants and parks all within minutes. This is a partnership that has been running since 1980 . Your 1/10th share gets you five weeks per year---one week every ten weeks on a rotating basis every year. You pay one fee of about $7,000 per year and everything is taken care of for you including weekly maid service. You show up, enjoy and then go home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥85°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − HOA: −$17,208
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$137
• After-tax cash flow: $728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This luxury townhome in Carnelian Woods offers panoramic lake views and a well-maintained interior with modern amenities. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed and offers high ROI for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improve curb appeal and add greenery
• Both painting — refresh interior and exterior paint
• Both landscaping — improve curb appeal and add greenery

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improve curb appeal and add greenery ↑
• Both painting — refresh interior and exterior paint ↑
• Both landscaping — improve curb appeal and add greenery ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Carnelian Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #340
• US rank: #11663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carnelian Bay, CA
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 1,099

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Slovene 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -280.97%
• Current HPI: 242.3006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $85,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $85,000 MLSListings