91 Acorn Nut Ln

Front Royal, VA 22630

$215,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,291/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-279/mo
• Annual: $-3,345/yr
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (39.9% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#162 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.6% in Front Royal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.