11532 Wolf Howl Ln

Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD 20657

$120,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,330/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$53
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $902/mo
• Annual: $10,822/yr
• Cap rate: 15.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.21%
• DSCR: 2.43
• 1% rule: 1.94%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $902 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#240 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $84k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 4.7% in Chesapeake Ranch Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.