11532 Wolf Howl Ln · Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD 20657

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1980 10,000 sqft lot $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come by and see rare flat lot in Chesapeake Ranch estate, this property features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Step into the main living space with a wonderful wood burning stove. Off to your left is the kitchen with a side door entrance. As you make your way to the back of the house you will see the 3 bedrooms and bathroom. This property does feature baseboard heaters and a window unit for air. Stop in today to take advantage of this property and make it your own.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Finished above-grade area recorded as 960 (source: assessor)
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership
• HOA & community: HOA fee $632 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached structure
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Tidal water not present; Water available; Electric available

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Drywall walls and ceilings; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $902 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 4.7% in Chesapeake Ranch Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#240 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $84k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.21%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $309,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
659 San Gabriel Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	4mo	$300,000	$313	74
11551 Hoofbeat Trl	0.07mi	2/2.5 (-1)	888 (-8%)	1mo	$335,000	$377	72
11533 Bootstrap Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	0mo	$340,000	$322	69
11752 Sidewinder Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,060 (+10%)	3mo	$317,000	$299	69
11543 Wolf Howl Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+14%)	6mo	$330,000	$302	66
11620 Cowpoke Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	1mo	$335,000	$317	63
916 Crystal Rock Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	8mo	$300,000	$313	61
11469 Chaves Ln	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	921 (-4%)	2mo	$385,000	$418	58
731 Bald Eagle Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	864 (-10%)	8mo	$340,000	$394	54
11636 Cowpoke Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	820 (-15%)	5mo	$315,000	$384	52
11581 Deadwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+14%)	6mo	$325,000	$298	51
905 Crystal Rock Rd	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,056 (+10%)	1mo	$420,000	$398	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $38,097
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $107,552
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20657

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $902

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $970	-5% $936	+0% $902	+5% $868	+10% $834
Rent	-10% $718	-5% $810	+0% $902	+5% $994	+10% $1,086
Rate	-1.0pp $962	-0.5pp $932	base $902	+0.5pp $871	+1.0pp $839

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1982 Rye Ct Unit Md Lusby, MD	3.0	1.0	960	$1,950	$2.03	17d	1	0.65mi
915 Crystal Rock Rd Lusby, MD	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,100	$1.99	44d	1	0.68mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    historical $120,000
15. 1994-11-21
    soldstatus $83,900
16. 1990-01-30
    soldstatus $76,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,475 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,475 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,236
• − Management: −$2,236
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $9,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,294
• After-tax cash flow: $8,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calvert County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400150
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $94,392
• Composite: 33.27/100
• National rank: #5511
• State rank: #5 of 24 in MD

Livability — Chesapeake Ranch Estates

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #11959

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD
• County: Calvert County · 33,451 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 20,699
• Household income: $115,748
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 136.0

Population outlook (Calvert County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,825 people
• By 2030: 96,197 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 96,954 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 94,628 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 91,576 · -3.4%
• By 2100: 83,431 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calvert

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.5% · R 54.5% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+5.6 2016: R+18.4 2012: R+8.2 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.88%
• Current HPI: 274.4909
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+56.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Coming Soon $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1994-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $83,900 Public Records
• 1990-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,475 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.