4017 Cedar Dr

Farmington, NM 87402

$260,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,434 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,074/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $76/mo
• Annual: $911/yr
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.25%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($911/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (20.2% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $207k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#38 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Farmington Municipal Schools (urban): math 23% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #23 of 95 in NM (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mesa Verde Elementary (435 students, 44% FRL); Heights Middle School (718 students, 44% FRL); Piedra Vista High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #68 of 110 statewide, top 62%, 1,578 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.