4017 Cedar Dr · Farmington, NM 87402

$260,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1961 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming, move-in ready home filled with natural light and thoughtful modern updates! This spacious layout features 4 bedrooms and a convenient dual access style 1.5 bathroom. The home has been upgraded with durable luxury vinyl plank flooring, carpet and tile offering both style and easy maintenance. Ideally located near shopping, schools, a local college, this home combines comfort and convenience. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($911/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#38 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Farmington Municipal Schools (urban): math 23% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #23 of 95 in NM (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mesa Verde Elementary (435 students, 44% FRL); Heights Middle School (718 students, 44% FRL); Piedra Vista High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #68 of 110 statewide, top 62%, 1,578 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $207,419 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.25%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-37,411
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-26,810
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87402

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,091/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,978

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $149	+0% $76	+5% $2	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-6	+0% $76	+5% $158	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $142	base $76	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5542 Cypress St Farmington, NM	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,400	$1.88	44d	1	1.09mi
2625 E 22nd St Farmington, NM	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,575	$1.43	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   historical
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $260,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,091 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,080 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$989/yr (+$82/mo · 90.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,091
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$3,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$867
• After-tax cash flow: $1,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500990
• Math proficiency: 23% —
• Reading proficiency: 43% —
• Median HH income: $51,365
• Composite: 31.5/100
• National rank: #11178
• State rank: #23 of 95 in NM

Livability — Farmington

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #11926

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmington, NM
• City population: 45,229
• Population (ZIP): 10,997

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Native American 17% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.39%
• Current HPI: 207.275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Delisted — SJCMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $260,000 SJCMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,091 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.