54749 Shelby Rd

Rochester, MI 48316

$154,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 865 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,706/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$225
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $52/mo
• Annual: $626/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.44%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $155k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($626/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#150 in MI, #3,744 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities D, health & safety D.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Worn and dated appearance.
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Dated and worn appearance.
• Minor: Exterior siding — Some discoloration present.
• Minor: Carpeting — Worn and outdated appearance.
• Minor: Paint — Chipped and faded in some areas.
• Minor: Landscaping — Basic and overgrown in some areas.