54749 Shelby Rd · Shelby, MI 48316

$154,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 865 sqft · Condo · 34 Days on market

Built 1972 Average condition $179/sqft · 11% above area Est $140k · 11% over $225/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful upper unit Ranch condo. Brand new carpeting throughout, sharp quartz counters with 9" stainless-steel sink in Kitchen with all appliances included. 5 filter purified water system at kitchen sink and refrigerator. Newer full-size walk-in shower enclosure, two nice sized bedrooms, spacious balcony overlooking community pond. In-unit laundry, common basement for additional storage. Community clubhouse available to rent for events. Cats allowed, prime location near Stony Creek Metropark, and unit is backed by the Macomb Orchard Trail. One assigned carport spot (#65), and generous unassigned visitor parking. Additional storage space on premises available for boats, campers, and RV

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Stainless steel sink
• Spacious balcony

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL SINK
• FILTER PURIFIED WATER SYSTEM
• WALK-IN SHOWER ENCLOSURE
• SPACIOUS BALCONY
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is residential condominium; Views present
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouse; HOA fee $225 monthly; HOA covers water, grounds maintenance and snow removal; Community clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport with assigned space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; One level
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Balcony; Pond on property; Private maintained road / private road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas water heater; Oven/Range; Refrigerator; Ceiling fan(s); Central air; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Has basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $155k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($626/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.44%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,960
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: 10.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-21,615
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,879
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48316

• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,706 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$225
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,640

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $106	+0% $52	+5% $-1	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-15	+0% $52	+5% $120	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $92	base $52	+0.5pp $12	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
56114 Stoney Place Ln Shelby Township, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1228	$1,864	$1.52	0d	1	1.11mi
56141 Chesapeake Trl Shelby Township, MI	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,650	$1.55	44d	1	1.31mi
56511 Scotland Blvd Shelby Township, MI	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,600	$1.50	3d	1	1.43mi
56103 Chesapeake Trl #247 Shelby Township, MI	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,695	$1.61	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $225 · $2,700/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $154,900 Active 702-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,638
• − Management: −$1,638
• − HOA: −$2,700
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$1,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$429
• After-tax cash flow: $1,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 28 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value. The home is move-in ready with a few minor repairs and maintenance items to address.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn and dated appearance.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated and worn appearance.
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration present.
• Minor Carpeting — Worn and outdated appearance.
• Minor Paint — Chipped and faded in some areas.
• Minor Landscaping — Basic and overgrown in some areas.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint freshening — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in curb appeal.
• Resale New flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating dated fixtures and cabinets can significantly increase the home's value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce maintenance costs.
• Rental Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can attract tenants and increase rental value.
• Rental Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating dated fixtures and cabinets can attract tenants and increase rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can enhance curb appeal and attract both buyers and tenants.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating dated fixtures and cabinets can significantly increase the home's value and attract both buyers and tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn and dated appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated and worn appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Some discoloration present.	Minor	$500–3,000
Carpeting · Worn and outdated appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Chipped and faded in some areas.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Basic and overgrown in some areas.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$3,000–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint freshening — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in curb appeal. ↑
• Resale New flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating dated fixtures and cabinets can significantly increase the home's value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can attract tenants and increase rental value. ↑
• Rental Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating dated fixtures and cabinets can attract tenants and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can enhance curb appeal and attract both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating dated fixtures and cabinets can significantly increase the home's value and attract both buyers and tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #7973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28,355

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -200.39%
• Current HPI: 186.8397
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $154,900 REALCOMP