430 Forest Dr

Hemphill, TX 75948

$65,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $824/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$3
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $171/mo
• Annual: $2,049/yr
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.26%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($824 rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#530 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 334 students, 66% FRL); Hemphill Middle (math 40% / reading 43%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 252 students, 63% FRL); Hemphill H S (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #939 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 254 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 237 active listings in the ZIP.
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.