430 Forest Dr · Hemphill, TX 75948

$65,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1978 0.64 ac lot $68/sqft · 25% below area Est $87k · 25% under $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 952 sq ft lake area home built in 1978 with tons of potential. Located in the Six Mile community, this property offers a great opportunity for investors, weekend retreat seekers, or buyers ready to make it their own. Home needs repairs and updates but features a functional layout. With a little TLC, this property could become the perfect weekend retreat, rental, or full-time residence. Bring your vision and unlock the possibilities.

Key facts

• 0.64 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $40 (about $3.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot in Woodland Estates subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($824 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#530 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 237 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.26%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,541
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -24.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $374
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $14,458
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75948

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,312/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $189	+0% $171	+5% $152	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $138	+0% $171	+5% $203	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $187	base $171	+0.5pp $154	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $65,000 Active 445-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,312
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$791
• − Management: −$791
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $1,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$264
• After-tax cash flow: $1,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemphill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,330
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5821
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hemphill

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #10376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,218

Population outlook (Sabine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,354 people
• By 2030: 8,806 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 7,871 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 7,224 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 6,351 · -32.1%
• By 2100: 5,465 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sabine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.5) · D 10.6% · R 89.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -54.8pp · 2024: -78.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.5 2020: R+75.0 2016: R+72.8 2012: R+63.9 2008: R+54.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.26%
• Current HPI: 159.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $65,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,312 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.