6953 Il Route 78 Hwy

Mount Carroll, IL 61053

$180,000D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,618 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,066/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-323/mo
• Annual: $-3,873/yr
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (40.8% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#513 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Chadwick-Milledgeville CUSD 399 (rural): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #249 of 919 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chadwick-Milledgeville Elem Sch (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #392 of 2,056 statewide, top 21%, 218 students, 0% FRL); Chadwick-Milledgeville Elem Sch (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #392 of 2,056 statewide, top 21%, 218 students, 0% FRL); Chadwick-Milledgeville Jr Hs (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #126 of 693 statewide, top 21%, 190 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.