6953 Il Route 78 Hwy · Mount Carroll, IL 61053

$180,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1920 1.74 ac lot $111/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bed, 1.5 bath home located just off IL 78, offering the perfect mix of privacy and convenience. Situated on just under 2 acres with a fenced in yard - great for pets, kids, and outdoor enjoyment! This property includes a 40x60 insulated and heated shop. Perfect for hobbies, storage, or a greaet workspace with plenty of room. Also has an additional room perfect for storage or an office space. Bathroom on upper level was recently added as well as laundry on 2nd level of home. Call today to come take a look at this great property!

Key facts

• Laundry on 2nd level
• Fenced in yard
• 1.74 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• ADDITIONAL ROOM FOR STORAGE
• LAUNDRY ON 2ND LEVEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (40.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#513 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Chadwick-Milledgeville CUSD 399 (rural): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #249 of 919 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chadwick-Milledgeville Elem Sch (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #392 of 2,056 statewide, top 21%, 218 students, 0% FRL); Chadwick-Milledgeville Elem Sch (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #392 of 2,056 statewide, top 21%, 218 students, 0% FRL); Chadwick-Milledgeville Jr Hs (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #126 of 693 statewide, top 21%, 190 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,561 (40.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,489
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -57.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $55,698
• Equity at exit: $139,026

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $176,911
• Equity at exit: $278,163

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61053

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,748/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,474

Max offer price $122,979

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-221	-5% $-272	+0% $-323	+5% $-374	+10% $-425
Rent	-10% $-407	-5% $-365	+0% $-323	+5% $-281	+10% $-239
Rate	-1.0pp $-232	-0.5pp $-277	base $-323	+0.5pp $-369	+1.0pp $-417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   2 bed, 1.5 bath home located just off IL 78, offering the perfect mix of privacy and convenience. Situated on just under 2 acres with a fenced in yard - great for pets, kids, and outdoor enjoyment! This property includes a 40x60 insulated and heated shop. Perfect for hobbies, storage, or a greaet workspace with plenty of room. Also has an additional room perfect for storage or an office space. Bathroom on upper level was recently added as well as laundry on 2nd level of home. Call today to come take a look at this great property!

2. 2026-04-18
   price $180,000 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   2 bed, 1.5 bath home located just off IL 78, offering the perfect mix of privacy and convenience. Situated on just under 2 acres with a fenced in yard - great for pets, kids, and outdoor enjoyment! This property includes a 40x60 insulated and heated shop. Perfect for hobbies, storage, or a greaet workspace with plenty of room. Also has an additional room perfect for storage or an office space. Bathroom on upper level was recently added as well as laundry on 2nd level of home. Call today to come take a look at this great property!

3. 2026-04-10
   price $199,900 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   2 bed, 1.5 bath home located just off IL 78, offering the perfect mix of privacy and convenience. Situated on just under 2 acres with a fenced in yard - great for pets, kids, and outdoor enjoyment! This property includes a 40x60 insulated and heated shop. Perfect for hobbies, storage, or a greaet workspace with plenty of room. Also has an additional room perfect for storage or an office space. Bathroom on upper level was recently added as well as laundry on 2nd level of home. Call today to come take a look at this great property!

4. 2022-10-06
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,917 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,169/yr (+$97/mo · 66.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,748
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$7,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,734
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chadwick-Milledgeville CUSD 399
• NCES district ID: 1709400
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,460
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #7924
• State rank: #249 of 919 in IL

Livability — Mount Carroll

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #513
• US rank: #10633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,902

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,010 people
• By 2030: 12,150 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 10,462 · -19.6%
• By 2050: 9,078 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 6,704 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 5,004 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.2% · R 64.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+29.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: D+1.4 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Current HPI: 160.8203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $180,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $199,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,748 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.