32270 Emancipation Circle Cir

Loxley, AL 36527

$241,400F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,437 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,892/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,533
• Tax + insurance: −$487
• HOA: −$376
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-901/mo
• Annual: $-10,810/yr
• Cap rate: 2.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.21%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $81,838

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $241k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-901 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stonebridge Elementary (509 students, 18% FRL); Spanish Fort Middle School (math 38% / reading 70%, grade B-, #20 of 257 statewide, top 8%, 622 students, 28% FRL); Spanish Fort High School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #25 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,188 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 38% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.9% in Loxley — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?