Is 32270 Emancipation Circle Cir in Loxley, AL a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 2.6% cap rate and $-895/mo modeled cash flow at a $241,400 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 32270 Emancipation Circle Cir?

The modeled cap rate is 2.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,900/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.0

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +4.9/10.0
Condition / age +4.2/5.0
Rent growth +4.1/5.0
Cash flow +3.4/30.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$241,400

32270 Emancipation Circle Cir · Loxley, AL 36527

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,437 sqft · SingleFamily · 171 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $376/mo HOA · 20% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to 32270 Emancipation Circle, located in Franklin Place at Independence in Spanish Fort, Alabama. This beautiful brand-new townhome is sure to wow, featuring open spaces and a wonderful layout. The Palm it is a 2-story home with 1,437 square feet of space. As you step into the Palm townhome, you will be greeted with an entryway into the modern, open concept with stunning features. The stairway will be to one side opposite of the garage. You will then pass the convenient hallway bathroom across from the beautiful kitchen which seamlessly blends into the dining and living room. The living room also flows into the back patio, making an ideal place for entertaining or unwinding.

Key facts

Open concept
Multiple lakes
Community pools

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $241k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-895 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (32.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (21.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $163k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 4.0% in Loxley — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Stonebridge Elementary (509 students, 18% FRL); Spanish Fort Middle School (math 38% / reading 70%, grade B-, #20 of 257 statewide, top 8%, 622 students, 28% FRL); Spanish Fort High School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #25 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,188 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 38% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 605 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $162,837 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 2.62%
Cash-on-cash: -13.12%
DSCR: 0.42
GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $292,278
List price: $241,400
Delta: -17.41%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32240 Emancipation Circle Cir	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	3mo	$240,000	$167	96
32232 Emancipation Circle Cir	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	3mo	$233,500	$162	96
32306 Revere Drive Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+5%)	1mo	$288,575	$192	78
32378 Revere Drive Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+5%)	3mo	$302,080	$201	77
32392 Revere Drive Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+5%)	3mo	$296,580	$197	77
32407 Revere Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+5%)	4mo	$298,580	$199	75
32250 Revere Drive Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+5%)	3mo	$293,080	$195	74
32445 Revere Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+5%)	5mo	$298,580	$199	73
32478 Revere Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+5%)	3mo	$294,480	$196	72
32408 Revere Drive Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-11%)	3mo	$287,388	$224	71
12836 Patriot Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-11%)	4mo	$268,500	$210	66
32208 Lyon Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+5%)	4mo	$330,000	$219	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -35.9%
Equity multiple: -0.19×
Total profit: $-97,107
Equity at exit: $43,580

10-year hold

IRR: -28.0%
Equity multiple: -0.54×
Total profit: $-126,123
Equity at exit: $25,271

Cash invested: $81,838 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 53 active · 35 under contract
Months of supply: 11.4 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $289,888 ($197/sqft)
Median days on market: 85 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +3.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36527

Home prices YoY: -14.4%
Rents YoY: 6.5%
Active inventory: 605
Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,900 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,533
Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,384/yr
Insurance: −$122
HOA: −$376
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
Net cashflow: $-895

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,033

Max offer price $162,837

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-693	-5% $-794	+0% $-895	+5% $-996	+10% $-1,097
Rent	-10% $-1,045	-5% $-970	+0% $-895	+5% $-819	+10% $-744
Rate	-1.0pp $-747	-0.5pp $-820	base $-895	+0.5pp $-970	+1.0pp $-1,047

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $73,070
Closing costs: $8,768
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32231 Emancipation Cir Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.5	1492	$1,850	$1.24	184d	1	0.04mi
32223 Emanicipation Cir Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,850	$1.29	9d	1	0.05mi
12807 Philadelphia Blvd Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,700	$1.18	35d	1	0.17mi
32236 Revere Dr Daphne, AL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,995	$1.40	1d	1	0.19mi
12775 Philadelphia Blvd Unit 6 Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,700	$1.18	10d	1	0.20mi
32667 Revere Dr Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1504	$1,850	$1.23	51d	1	0.32mi
32682 Revere Dr Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1504	$2,100	$1.40	10d	1	0.35mi
31697 Lyon Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,500	$1.40	162d	1	0.52mi
31573 Shearwater Dr Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	162d	1	0.63mi
31468 Memphis Loop Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,250	$1.22	10d	1	0.66mi
31518 Lyon Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,650	$1.48	35d	1	0.68mi
31100 Falling Waters Loop Spanish Fort, AL	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$1,974	$1.70	10d	1	0.98mi
33064 Stables Dr Unit B Spanish Fort, AL	2.0	2.0	1185	$1,600	$1.35	154d	1	1.13mi
33071 -B Stables Dr Unit B Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	10d	1	1.16mi
33071 -B Stables Dr Unit B Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	2d	1	1.16mi
33101 Stables Dr Unit A Spanish Fort, AL	2.0	2.0	1338	$1,550	$1.16	51d	1	1.17mi
33720B Stables Dr Unit A Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.0	1782	$1,650	$0.93	24d	1	1.19mi
12914 Churchill Dr Unit B Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,680	$1.05	162d	1	1.20mi
12862 Churchill Dr Unit A Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,675	$1.10	10d	1	1.20mi
12810 -A Churchill Dr Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.0	1782	$1,700	$0.95	2d	1	1.21mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Quarterly association dues (association management, common area insurance, grounds maintenance, common area taxes included)Community features include an outdoor poolTransfer fees apply

Exterior

Parking: Single covered garage with automatic garage door (1 covered space, garage approx. 10'9" x 19'6")
Utilities: Public waterBaldwin County sewer serviceUnderground utilitiesElectric service (central electric cooling and heat pump)
Home design: TownhouseAttached propertyTwo storiesNew construction
Construction: Concrete board and hardboard exteriorFortified-Gold constructionDimensional roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction (builder-provided building area)
Exterior features: Community outdoor poolLess than 1 acre lotNo waterfront

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric range
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with attached bath and walk-in closet (second floor)Second bedroom (approx. 13.7 x 9.4)Third bedroom (approx. 13.7 x 9.4)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomPrimary bathroom with double vanity and shower
Heating & cooling: Central heating (heat pump)Central electric cooling (SEER 14)
Interior features: No fireplaceLiving roomDining room
Laundry & utility: Laundry on level 2

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $241,400 Active 171 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $241,400 Active 170 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $241,400 Active 169 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $241,400 Active 168 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $241,400 Active 167 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $241,400 Active 165 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $241,400 Active 164 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $241,400 Active 163 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $241,400 Active 162 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $241,400 Active 161 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $241,400 Active 160 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $241,400 Active 159 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $241,400 Active 158 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $241,400 Active 157 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $241,400 Active 156 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $241,400 Active 155 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $241,400 Active 154 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $241,400 Active 153 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $241,400 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $241,400 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $241,400 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $241,400 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $241,400 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $241,400 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $241,400 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $241,400 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $241,400 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $241,400 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $241,400 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $241,400 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $241,400 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $241,400 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $241,400 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $241,400 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $241,400 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $241,400 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $241,400 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $241,400 Active 133 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $241,400 Active 132 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $241,400 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $241,400 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $241,400 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $241,400 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $241,400 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $241,400 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $241,400 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $241,400 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $241,400 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $241,400 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $241,400 Active 121 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,805
− Mortgage interest: −$16,372
− Property taxes: −$4,384
− Insurance: −$1,461
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
− Management: −$1,824
− HOA: −$4,512
− Depreciation: −$8,503
Taxable loss: −$16,076

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,858
After-tax cash flow: $-6,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 85/100 None rehab

This modern townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stonebridge Elementary Middle Spanish Fort Middle School B- AL #20/257 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Spanish Fort High School F AL #25/305 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Baldwin County
NCES district ID: 0100270
Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
Median HH income: $50,677
Composite: 38.61/100
National rank: #4157
State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Loxley

Score: 66/100
State rank: #95
US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Loxley, AL
County: Baldwin County · 248,264 people
Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
Population (ZIP): 21,765
Household income: $120,189
Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 248,264 people
By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -39.56%
Current HPI: 234.5113
Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Financial Services	1	$8B
#317 Regions Financial Birmingham $8.2B
Healthcare	1	$5B
#300 Encompass Health Birmingham $5.3B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-21 Listed $241,400 BCAR

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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