1305 E Goliad Ave

Crockett, TX 75835

$134,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Active · 358 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-374/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $37,660

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-374/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (13.4% below list).
• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,005 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crockett ISD (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #736 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Crockett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.