1305 E Goliad Ave · Crockett, TX 75835

$134,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 358 Days on market

Built 1947 0.58 ac lot $120/sqft · 10% below area Est $150k · 10% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, two bath home just inside East Loop 304 in Crockett. Located on .60 acre of land in a good location. Carport. Close to Loop 304 shopping. City utilities, could be rental property or home living! Hurry! Central air and heat, nice back yard. Family owned for many years.

Key facts

• City utilities
• Loop 304 shopping
• Back yard

Tags

• EAST LOOP 304
• CARPORT
• LOOP 304 SHOPPING
• CITY UTILITIES
• BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-374/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Crockett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,005 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crockett ISD (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #736 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,500 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,085
• List price: $134,500
• Delta: -10.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Briar Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,129 (+1%)	15mo	$156,000	$138	71
133 Briar Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	15mo	$130,000	$107	61
1403 Sanders	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+8%)	5mo	$150,000	$124	50
102 Mcduff Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,064 (-5%)	20mo	$120,000	$113	44
100 J B Mcduff Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,199 (+7%)	22mo	$169,000	$141	42
107 Village Way	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+11%)	24mo	$120,000	$96	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-23,749
• Equity at exit: $20,054

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-23,110
• Equity at exit: $11,629

Cash invested: $37,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75835

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,282/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,204

Max offer price $128,993

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $7	+0% $-31	+5% $-69	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-77	+0% $-31	+5% $15	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $3	base $-31	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,625
• Closing costs: $4,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2109 E Goliad Ave Crockett, TX	2.0	1.0	1348	$1,300	$0.96	44d	1	0.35mi
108 N Gordon Dr Unit A Crockett, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$900	$0.92	44d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,500 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,500 Active 356 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,500 Active 355 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,500 Active 354 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,500 Active 353 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,500 Active 351 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,500 Active 350 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,500 Active 347 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,500 Active 346 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,500 Active 345 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,500 Active 344 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,500 Active 341 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,500 Active 340 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,500 Active 339 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,500 Active 338 DOM
16. 2025-09-26
    price $134,500 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Three bedroom, two bath home just inside East Loop 304 in Crockett. Located on .60 acre of land in a good location. Carport. Close to Loop 304 shopping. City utilities, could be rental property or home living! Hurry! Central air and heat, nice back yard. Family owned for many years.

17. 2025-06-27
    listed $148,500 Active 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Three bedroom, two bath home just inside East Loop 304 in Crockett. Located on .60 acre of land in a good location. Carport. Close to Loop 304 shopping. City utilities, could be rental property or home living! Hurry! Central air and heat, nice back yard. Family owned for many years.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,461 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$180/yr (+$15/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,534
• − Property taxes: −$2,282
• − Insurance: −$672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$3,913
• Taxable loss: −$2,658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$638
• After-tax cash flow: $264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crockett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815720
• Math proficiency: 22% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $26,917
• Composite: 19.83/100
• National rank: #8699
• State rank: #736 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crockett

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1005
• US rank: #17855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crockett, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,805

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,269 people
• By 2030: 20,568 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 19,255 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 17,980 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 15,214 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 11,720 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 22.1% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.03%
• Current HPI: 149.4937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $134,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $148,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,282 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.