1258 Glen Carlyn Dr

Victor, NY 14425

$199,900B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,617/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $596/mo
• Annual: $7,151/yr
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.78%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in NY, #1,991 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Victor Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #222 of 590 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Victor Primary School (math 46% / reading 60%, grade C, #983 of 2,108 statewide, top 47%, 711 students, 25% FRL); Victor Intermediate School (math 40% / reading 58%, grade C-, #294 of 729 statewide, top 41%, 919 students, 26% FRL); Victor Senior High School (math 98% / reading 72%, grade A, #369 of 1,100 statewide, top 34%, 1,320 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.6% in Victor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.