3105 Willow St

Anchorage, AK 99517

$635,000C-

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,372 sqft · Built 1961 · MultiFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,423/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,330
• Tax + insurance: −$873
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,349
• Net cashflow: $871/mo
• Annual: $10,454/yr
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.88%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $177,800

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $635k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $871 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $635k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turnagain Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #55 of 156 statewide, top 37%, 308 students, 41% FRL); Romig Middle School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #22 of 36 statewide, top 63%, 720 students, 37% FRL); West High School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #39 of 61 statewide, top 65%, 1,763 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,423/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 643% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.