1503 N Hayden Island Dr #129

Portland, OR 97217

$189,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $1,090/mo
• Annual: $13,076/yr
• Cap rate: 13.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.22%
• DSCR: 2.17
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#72 in OR, #3,256 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Portland SD 1J (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 183 in OR (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Faubion Elementary School (610 students, 73% FRL); Jefferson High School (606 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 37% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 305 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $189k implies a 763% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.2% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.