1503 N Hayden Island Dr #129 · Portland, OR 97217

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT MANUF HOME ON THE BANKS OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN DESIREABLE HAYDEN ISLAND.OLDIE BUT GOODY AND TRULY AFFORDABE WATER LIVING. CALL DAVE BAKER @[phone].

Key facts

• 180 river views
• Panoramic view
• Modern updates

Tags

• 180 RIVER VIEWS
• WATERFRONT LOT
• PANORAMIC VIEW
• COLUMBIA RIVER
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• MODERN UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a park setting (Hayden Island association), resale property
• Financial info: Monthly lot rent applies
• HOA & community: Community amenities: commons, gym, party room, pool, recreation facilities, tennis courts, trash service

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway and off-street parking; Carport (1 space); Total parking for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Gas fuel
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park (residential, detached); Single-level living; Built in 2005; Views facing city and river
• Construction: Composition roof; Block foundation with skirting
• Exterior features: Deck; Cement siding; Riverfront location with Columbia River views; City views; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Vinyl floor in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary suite on main level (large primary bedroom); Second bedroom on main level; Third bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Wall-to-wall carpet in bedrooms, family room and living room; Vinyl flooring in kitchen and dining areas
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (90% efficiency); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible design with ground-level, one-level layout and a main-floor bedroom with bath; Vinyl flooring in kitchen/dining areas; Wall-to-wall carpet in bedrooms, family room and living room; Vinyl-frame windows; Crawl space basement; Gas fireplace (1) in living room
• Laundry & utility: Gas hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.2% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#72 in OR, #3,256 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Portland SD 1J (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 183 in OR (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Faubion Elementary School (610 students, 73% FRL); Jefferson High School (606 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 37% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 305 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $189k implies a 763% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.22%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $32,583
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $93,386
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Portland: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+39

Mandatory relocation for no-cause evictions; rent increase notice 90 days.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97217

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,628/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $1,090

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,197	-5% $1,143	+0% $1,090	+5% $1,036	+10% $983
Rent	-10% $853	-5% $972	+0% $1,090	+5% $1,208	+10% $1,326
Rate	-1.0pp $1,185	-0.5pp $1,138	base $1,090	+0.5pp $1,041	+1.0pp $991

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1747 N Jantzen Ave Portland, OR	3.0	4.0	2000	$3,100	$1.55	44d	1	0.34mi
1111 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.5	857	$4,800	$5.60	2d	28	0.67mi
111 Parkway Pl Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$4,995	$5.08	2d	3	0.67mi
440 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$4,400	$5.10	2d	150	0.72mi
540 N Hayden Bay Dr Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	1816	$3,095	$1.70	4d	1	0.82mi
1055 N Anchor Way Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$3,150	$2.98	2d	34	0.92mi
608 Washington St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	903	$3,236	$3.58	2d	11	0.97mi
500 Broadway St #506 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1837	$3,295	$1.79	24d	1	1.02mi
995 N Marine Dr Portland, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,036	$2.20	3d	11	1.05mi
110 N Tomahawk Island Dr Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,674	$2.69	2d	27	1.21mi
1601 Esther St Unit 1601 Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,499	$2.00	24d	1	1.33mi
1421 SE Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,300	$1.94	18d	1	1.43mi
112 NE Bridgeton Rd Portland, OR	3.0	2.5	2200	$4,700	$2.14	44d	1	1.44mi
11505 NE Yacht Harbor Dr Portland, OR	2.0	2.0	2559	$4,356	$1.70	2d	5	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    status Active
15. 2026-03-24
    historical Active with Bumpable Contingency
16. 2026-03-20
    listed $199,950 Active
17. 1998-10-05
    soldstatus $21,900 162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (162 chars)

    GREAT MANUF HOME ON THE BANKS OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN DESIREABLE HAYDEN ISLAND.OLDIE BUT GOODY AND TRULY AFFORDABE WATER LIVING. CALL DAVE BAKER @[phone].

18. 1998-07-27
    listed $21,900 162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (162 chars)

    GREAT MANUF HOME ON THE BANKS OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN DESIREABLE HAYDEN ISLAND.OLDIE BUT GOODY AND TRULY AFFORDABE WATER LIVING. CALL DAVE BAKER @[phone].

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,628 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,628
• − Insurance: −$1,742
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,870
• − Management: −$2,870
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $10,678
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,563
• After-tax cash flow: $10,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portland SD 1J
• NCES district ID: 4110040
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,851
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #5112
• State rank: #23 of 183 in OR

Livability — Portland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #3256

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portland, OR
• County: Multnomah County · 786,692 people
• City population: 774,334
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,169
• Household income: $100,361
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Multnomah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 930,825 people
• By 2030: 996,904 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 1,121,379 · +20.5%
• By 2050: 1,242,124 · +33.4%
• By 2075: 1,464,431 · +57.3%
• By 2100: 1,576,181 · +69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Multnomah

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+62.1) · D 79.3% · R 17.2% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: 56.1pp · 2024: 62.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+62.1 2020: D+61.3 2016: D+58.3 2012: D+54.9 2008: D+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -747.13%
• Current HPI: 370.7526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.89%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+813.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — RMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $199,950 RMLS
• 1998-10-05 Sold (MLS) $21,900 RMLS
• 1998-07-27 Listed $21,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2018): $1,628 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.