1812 Manzanita Park Ave

Malibu, CA 90265

$1,499,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,952 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,885/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,861
• Tax + insurance: −$1,468
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,286
• Net cashflow: $-730/mo
• Annual: $-8,761/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $419,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-730 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.37M (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.09M (27.4% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $1.09M (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#979 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Santa Monica-Malibu Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #123 of 1,400 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Webster Elementary (214 students, 10% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 640 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $792k; list at $1.50M implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 0.7% in Malibu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $10,885/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($197k/yr) (locally 420% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.