4 W Church St W

Lenzburg, IL 62255

$16,500D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 862 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$87
• Tax + insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $567/mo
• Annual: $6,809/yr
• Cap rate: 47.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 147.39%
• DSCR: 7.56
• 1% rule: 5.23%
• Cash to close: $4,620

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $16k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($863 rent vs $16k).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $15k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $164 of equity ($114 loan paydown + $50 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,303 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Marissa CUSD 40 (rural): math 17% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #496 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Marissa Elem School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,056 statewide, top 71%, 275 students, 0% FRL); Marissa Jr & Sr High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 260 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.